Wednesday, 28 September 2011

It's pants - not that Mervyn King would use those words !

I tweeted today saying that I was going to a briefing in Cardiff on the economic outlook.  A reply from a twitter follower came back " Don't bother it's pants". Undeterred I went and gleaned the following.

43% of our exports are to EU trading partners of which Germany at 10% is our biggest customer.

The Chinese economy is still growing but both Taiwan & India have experienced falls.

The cost of borrowing has gone up and Italy & Spain are the latest economies struggling to service their debts.

The cost of borrowing money has gone up for banks and will affect the price of business or consumer credit.

Manufacturing had shown signs of growth but has dipped since March.

UK domestic growth 0.8% forecast for 2011. Consumer spending has contracted in this recession unlike in previous recessions.

Real incomes - falling over the past two years. Pay rises averaging 2% whereas Inflation at 5%.

Uncertainty of demand means that businesses are investing less in their businesses,

The inflation outlook - RPI 5.2% CPI 4.5%. Prediction is that CPI will fall in 2012 when VAT increases drop out of the calculation and oil prices have reduced. Real incomes should increase if inflation falls.

The first audience question was mine - I recounted the story of the Tweet. Pants isn't a phrase Mervyn King would use but it is pretty grim was the reply.

So there you go - thanks to my blog & the credible economist who gave the brief  you can contemplate your personal and/ or business strategy for weathering this economic malaise. Can it get any worse ? Your guess is as good as mine.